Gulf security أمن الخليج العربي

الخميس، 6 سبتمبر، 2007

There they go again: British withdrawal from Iraq 2007

Karl Marx said "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." And 40 years ago in Aden, South Arabia, Arab nationalist campaign of" terrorism" began to attack the British position in Aden. This campaign was the work of a relatively small group of trained men, who were directed by Egyptian intelligence experts and who used Yemen as a safe-haven. the attacks were aimed mainly at British forces and Aden government officials, especially the Special Branch of the Aden Police, which was concerned with subversive activities. [ FRUS 1964-1968, Volume XXI Near East Region/ Intelligence Memorandum/1/OCI No. 1812/65 Washington, June 9, 1965.] Two nationalists groups began a struggle against British control and the British began to withdraw. Southern Yemen became independent. The radical People's Democratic Republic of Yemen established close ties with the Soviet Union ,China, and Cuba. Communist powers assisted in building that country and resulted in Soviet naval forces gaining access to naval facilities in South Yemen. At the sixties U.S.Position was that "Any precipitate British withdrawal from the Aden area at this time would result in a chaotic situation in South Arabia and well be harmful to general Western interests. "[ FRUS 1964-1968, Volume XXI Near East Region /CA-4185 /Washington, October 15, 1965, 10:19 a.m./ Aden Debate in UNGA/REF/Depcirtel 509, Sept. 28, 1965/2/] but the British did it any way.

At the sometime the British announced their military withdrawal east of Suez, the American government opinion was that a British withdrawal from the Arabian Gulf would provide the USSR with some opportunities to expand its influence there. [FRUS 1964-1968, Volume XXI Near East Region /Paper Prepared in the Department of State/1/Washington, September 2, 1965.] After the British withdrawal in 1971, the Gulf States experienced a series of dramatic jolts that included dispute with Iran over the UAE islands Abu Musa, Tunb, and Lesser Tunb , an Iraqi attack on Kuwait 1973, Iran- Iraq war1980, then the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait 1990. British influence in the Gulf was the principal stabilizing force securing Western interests in that area .But during 60s HMG was under the spur of economic necessity when they reduce their presence in the gulf, and they didn’t want to work as a security company for the American oil companies in the Area.

In the Gulf States we are not optimistic about the Iraqi ability to avoid chaos, British removal of their military presence from southern Iraq2007 well open the gate to Iranian influence. And the Transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis is the same as transferring it to Al-Mahdi Army. The Iranian army now has the bridge they never had before, and the likelihood of Al-Mahi militia becoming the Vanguard when Iranian army marches to Arabian Peninsula doesn't need to be examine.
British troops were supposed to remain until Iraq is stable and secure enough to stand on its own feet but not on Iranian uniforms.
In our view, maintenance of a continuing military presence in southern Iraq will be far more important than the rest of Iraq.
40 years, and the Arabian Gulf is still the issue and the British are still the ones Withdrawing without examining their allies needs. and there they go again first as tragedy, second as farce.

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Gulf seurity أمن الخليج العربي

تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman

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