Gulf security أمن الخليج العربي

السبت، 19 يناير 2008

GCC/ Iran, the arms race is on

The term arms race by the encyclopedia is used to describe any competition where there is no absolute goal, only the relative goal of staying ahead of the other competitors. This Definition well fits like a glove to the situation in the Arabian Gulf now.
What is the Absolute goal for this?
Anthony H. Cordesman
, is a generally very professional strategic analyst, with a non-ideological approach that leads him to express strategic truths and judgments in an even-handed, objective way . He wrote that the Gulf arms sales package from U.S. will have a total cost of over $20 billion over a ten-year period. The announced details include:
PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense systems" Upgrades to patriot": $9B ,E-2C maritime patrol aircraft: $437M to the United Arab Emirates
PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense systems" Upgrades to 1997 patriot" : $1.4B to the state of Kuwait
AWACS Upgrade $310M and Sniper/Lantirn targeting pod $220M
JDAM $123M Upgrades to the Saudi Eastern Fleet including the Littoral Combat Ship and the sale of the AIM-9X and PAC-3 surface-to-air and missile defense system "Upgrades to patriot" to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Additional sales will be offered to Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar including Link 16 secure communications to help build a more efficient collective defense capability.
To put these numbers in perspective, research by Richard F. Grimmett of the CRS shows that Saudi Arabia alone signed an average of $3.1 billion a year in new arms agreements during 2003-2006. All of the Southern Gulf states combined signed an average of $4.7 billion a year. Given a massive rise in oil export revenues, which has given the GCC states holdings of some two trillion dollars, and regional perceptions of the Iranian threat, it is likely that Southern Gulf arms sales will be 50-100% higher over the next four years. The US sales will average less than a quarter of total regional purchases, and competing European and Russian weapons and technology is available in every case.
Are we ahead of the other competitors?
Iran is building a stockpile of thousands of high-tech small arms
and other military equipment — from armor-piercing snipers' rifles to night-vision goggles .
Tehran also is seeking approval for a U.N.-funded satellite. sales of tanks and anti-ship missiles by Belarus and China, or helicopters and artillery pieces from Russia have been well documented by U.S. authorities and international nongovernmental agencies.
Since 1992, Russia has sold Iran
hundreds of major weapons systems, including twenty T-72 tanks, ninety-four air-to-air missiles, and a handful of combat aircraft like the MiG-29. Russia agreed to sell Iran a $700 million surface-to-air missile defense system (SA-15 Gauntlet) along with thirty TOR M-1 air-defense missile systems, ostensibly to defend its soon-to-be-complete, Russian-built nuclear reactor at Bushehr. Moscow also plans to upgrade Tehran’s Su-24, MiG-29 aircraft, and T-72 battle tanks. Iran has shown interest in S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia and Belarus, which can intercept enemy aircraft ninety to 180 miles away. Iran also is building up its naval presence. The Iranians claimed to have tested a high-speed torpedo—similar to the Russian-made VA-111 Shkval—. Iran already fields China’s Silkworm anti-shipping missile and an array of mine technologies.
Nuclear western umbrella
With Iran using its nuclear capabilities to control the Arabian gulf ,GCC states well enter into alliances with existing nuclear powers and come under their nuclear umbrella.
Are we heading to the nuclear arms race?

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Gulf seurity أمن الخليج العربي

تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman

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