Gulf security أمن الخليج العربي

الثلاثاء، 11 سبتمبر، 2007

The damage is done: With or without Iran's nuclear bomb


Even without the nuclear capability to make a bomb, or succeeding in making a nuclear explosion, Iran succeeded in damaging the Arabian Gulf security. When examining the geopolitical environment of the Arabian Gulf region nowadays, Instability comes as the first symptom of the critical future of this area. The current situation between Iran and the United States created a challenging environment to the Arabian Gulf states. The damage that came with the Iranian seeking to achieve a nuclear weapons capability went beyond reasonable worries by the GCC states. The situation left several damages in the Arabian –Iranian relations fabric.
Fuelling an arms race
The most serious damage was Fuelling an arms race in the gulf. The U.S. recently announced a series of arms deals, worth $20 billion, with Saudi and other GCC states. The deals are part of steps aimed at Countering Iran's regional policy in the Gulf. At the same time Russia announced selling air defense missiles and sokhoi aircrafts to Iran, such arms sales are in no way justifiable, these deals by the GCC states and Iran constitute a threat to the gulf security. They well enhance the military capabilities in both sides but well trigger a regional arms race and It is obvious that an arms buildup well delay other developments programs.
Rebirth of Military pacts
Iran has an army of 545 thousand men along with 40 thousands from Revolutionary Guards and other units, while the GCC states have only 378300 men,It will be impassable to have a military balance in the near future. As a deterrent the U.S are trying to make a new military Pact by pushing moderate Middle Eastern states to enter into alliances that includes GCC states, Israel and Egypt
[1] , If not thenpushing GCC states to enter into alliances with existing nuclear powers and come under a nuclear umbrella [2]. And we saw it between Kuwait and the NATO[3]. Another form on the military pacts is the military defense treaties and monthly military Exercises that turns the GCC States into a Powerless proxies of the U.S and escalating the situation in the area to the point of no return .
GCC acquiring a nuclear capability
In response to the Iranian nuclear programs a strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Saudi sets out three options: the first one was To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent
[4]. The Iranians are seriously mistaken if they think that the GCC states will not look for their own strategic equalizer. They should conceder that the Gulf States will start a covert or an overt nuclear arms program of their own.
Iran nuclear capabilities as a tool
With Iran using its nuclear capabilities as a propaganda tool to spread the Shiasim the GCC states saw a serious warnings about a Shia Crescent supposedly forming under Iran's leadership. Saudi and Bahrain are the two countries that have more worries because of the large neglected Shia communities their
[5]. Iran nuclear capabilities also led to more challenges by Sunni extremists groups.
The lost neighborly relations
Gulf States are stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Iranian assurances of their peacfull nuclear program continued for the last 3 years ,in the other hand warned from the west continued to the Gulf states not to trust Iran's intentions, on the grounds that,
in light of Iran's expansionist aspirations, it was likely to use its weapons
for that purpose .Working hard to improve the trust between the two camps is not an easy task when remembering that they could be on each others throat for a silly reason like the name of the gulf it self if its a Persian gulf or an Arabian gulf . Building trust between Iran and GCC states require at a minimum the opening of Iran's nuclear program to the UN inspectors. The Gulf States should emphasize building trust and confidence by assuring Iran that the US will not use their land as a staging attack against Iran.
Nuclear monopoly
Without
Nuclear capability Iran is creating mistrust and doubt in its relations with the countries of the region, So far Iran used its power to occupy the UAE islands, Iran is exercising more geopolitical freedom than they have before , forcing GCC countries to lower or raise oil prices. To take Iranian labor force merchandise, and to become a trade partner. Iran... sticks its nose into everything that happens in the GCC states, exercise violation of Arab states territorial waters.
Who should we blame?
No one other than the US policy in the gulf for the last 50 years ,during the shah reign with its roots in Nixon's Twin Pillar policy that caused the Islamic revolution in 1979 , the American hostages crisis, the support of Sadaam during the Iraq-Iran war 1980-1988 ,the Iraq freedom operation and now the failure in Iraq that encouraged Iran TO GO NUCLEAR .

Notes
[1] . Diplomatic Center for Strategic Studies#13,Aug13,2007,pp8-10
[2] Brigadier General Ahmad ALRahmani, Gulf security ,internal and external threats. Qatar,March 2007
[3] .Nada.AlMutawa,NATO and the Gulf security scenario .ALJAREEDAH,2007-09-11
[4] . The Guardian, September 18, 2003
[5]. Diplomatic Center for Strategic Studies.#15-2sept2007 p6.

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تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman

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