Gulf security أمن الخليج العربي

الخميس، 23 أغسطس 2007

Iran's new strategy to counter U.S. military strike.

Last summer Saudi Arabia implicitly accused Iranian-Syrian backed Hezbollah of provoking war with Israel which devastated Lebanon. Syrian President Bashar AlAssad labeled them "half men" for failing to support Hezbollah .then the War of words heats up between Syria and Saudi again on 17th August 2007 when Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa aroused Saudi Arabia's ire for suggesting that Saudi's regional influence was almost in a state of paralysis.
On 19th June 2007 the third secretary in Kuwait's Embassy in Tehran Mohammad al-Zubi was physically assaulted by the Revolutionary Guard after leaving the embassy building.
On 9thJuly 2007 editor of the daily Kayhan newspaper Hussein Shariatmadari the appointed representative of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader,at Kayhan and one of his close advisors, protested Bahrain's support for the UEA claims to three islands in the Arabian Gulf that were part of the 1971 deal for the independence of Bahrain. He wrote that Public opinion in Bahrain,"a province of Iran", is in favor of reunification with the "native land". This territorial claims on Bahrain have sparked considerable tension in the region.

Three incidents show that Iran is stetting the stage for a new strategy to counter U.S. military strike. Instead of developing a bilateral relations and mutual ties, the Iranians are pushing the GCC states (Saudi, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman) to the United states camp to involve them in Iran's dispute with US over the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb program. With control of about 45 percent of the worlds oil reserves and as Washington’s closest Arab allies the GCC as a battlefield are way better than Palestine, Lebanon or even Iraq to Iran.

What's next?

Iran well seeks better cards by taken its battle with U.S. to a new and suitable field. through the high level of Ceiling of Freedom in Kuwait, Iran well continue interfering in Kuwait's internal affairs, and What happened to Kuwait Embassy in Tehran well happen to it again and to embassies of the rest of GCC states in Tehran or Lebanon or Syria.

During the hajj Season (late December 2007) Iranian pilgrims in the Muslim holy city of Mecca well try to stage their demonstrations or the so called "Distancing Ourselves from infidels "to create clashes with Saudi policemen .With the United Arab Emirates,the Iranian occupation of the UAE three strategic Gulf islands. Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Mousa can rise any time during any GCC summit, but the large and rich Iranian community and the economical interests well be an important factor in easing the tension .

During a ceremony marking the departure of the Qatari emir,Hamad al-Thani,he said he hoped Iran's national soccer team would bring pride to all the "Arabic Persian Gulf" region during the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Not missing a beat, Iranian President Ahmadinejad shot back: "I believe you called it the Persian Gulf when you studied in school." Such minor disputes could come from AlJazeera TV every day. But the major dispute is likely to come from the American presence in Al-Sayliyah military Base in Qatar that could be the staging ground to support any American attacks against Iran's nuclear programs.
This dangerous strategy of Iran to expand the conflict zone, and to push the GCC states to the American camp, then to take them as hostages and "states shields " are the best card in Iran's hand.

See Replies& Views

ليست هناك تعليقات:

Gulf seurity أمن الخليج العربي

تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman

أرشيف المدونة الإلكترونية