Gulf security أمن الخليج العربي

الأربعاء، 14 أكتوبر 2015

The Impacts of Russian Intervention in Syria on Gulf Countries

Dr. Zafer M. Alajmi

Gulf efforts in Syria going as she-camel of the ancient Arab poet Tarafata Ibn Al-Abed neither walk nor run, whereas Moscow goes as the horse of the ancient Arab poet like a rock dropped down from above by flood. The Russian horse didn’t involve in the crisis from the rear, but the striking thing was the quickly moving from margin to the center after pursuing a new path to positive engagement with events. In my estimation, the impacts of Russian intervention in Syria on Gulf countries are coming inevitably, although our naive politicians still assume geographical proximity to gauge the threats which requires reading those impacts loudly in order to understand it: 
- Not long ago, we called for Russian-Gulf relations to compensate American forsake, but Moscow approached in a way we do not prefer , and there will be impacts on Gulf due to the rough  approaching by Russia  in several regional issues . The hostile voices coming from Moscow or from SU24 engines reflect the intention to impose Moscow's will by force. 
- Russia is fiercely attacking anti-Assad armed groups not stigmatized by terrorism and backed by Gulf countries under supervision of Washington, making the Russian attack against Gulf countries. 
- Russian intervention will draw new maps with impacts on Gulf countries that were afraid of the "Sykes /Picot division" , so came who will carry out it after the pattern of "Division of Berlin" which was tough and characterized by entire isolation . 
- Russia wouldn’t have to intervene without coordination with Teheran just as Nicholas II has coordinated with Shah Qajar a century ago. The successful Russian access to our region means that the Russian dream to reach the warm waters of the Gulf has come true.
- One of the impacts of Russian intervention is creation of jihadist sympathy charge, and when the Russian leave, a demographic shock will take place, causing the terrorists flow down from the Syrian heights to the Gulf capitals likewise the former Afghan's situation .
- Russia knows well that Gulf countries were engaged in Yemen , and that there is a room for Iran to devote itself to Yemen , and the situation in Iraq will negatively affects the Gulf countries , the evidence for that is Baghdad's insistence on denying the fact that the quadruple alliance is military .
- Arabic-Arabic relations and Gulf-Gulf relations these days described as flexible – as many observers noted – and there is tolerance and acceptance of differences in views about Russian intervention, however the seeds of these differences might become a jungle of disputes in the future if not managed prudently. 

In fluent accent
Stalin killed 40 million people, 14.453 Soviet people, and 1.5 million Afghanis were killed in Afghanistan. In Chechnya, 30.000 Russians were killed and 300.000 Chechens as well As killing toll in East Ukraine reached 7962 victims. Bearing in mind that the census of the Gulf population shows that it is not in line with the Russian pace of killing neither in the past, nor in the present. So, we will not be able to be part of a fight against Russians. In any armed confrontation, Russian military decision maker will be dominated by Joseph Stalin's eloquence who said; "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is statistic".

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