Dr. Zafer M. Alajmi
We have to reach Sanaa even it takes us long time; this is no longer just a proverb , no longer Aden folk song , but a war map , and tactical plan , and pre-battle measures of maneuvers units , then the heat of muzzles of the cannons ,and the roar of rocket launchers . Following their defeat in Aden, Houthi/Saleh coalition was fortified in Sanaa , and that solid city by people and fences will be hard to the Arabic Coalition army when enters in undomesticated environment as it was for the Persians and Ottomans conquers . Although victorious at the end of conflicts dictates its conditions on the loser, however this will not be achieved in the current conflict. The illegitimate coalition will refuse to admit defeat and conditions or they recoil them .They will reject the Gulf initiative and the UNSC's resolution 2216. The strength point of the illegitimate coalition is that the coalition will be a victim of asymmetric warfare against asymmetric forces. Wars were based on the principle of equivalence in the number of troops , arms , fighting organization , and countless military rules , with customs that the winner is that who was capable of using these means and rules , but asymmetric warfare is the weapon of the weak in the face of the mighty relying on the great enemy to destroy itself where fighters hide among civilians to strike the regular forces surprise strike then disappear taking advantage of the lack of military signs such as wear , weapons , and disorganized withdrawal .
Since Yemen is a theatre to enhance Iranian influence, Teheran will seek relying on its material boom to increase military assistance to the Houthis, and that increases the seriousness of these forces which are more light, flexible, and speedy in response compared with the conventional forces of the coalition. So what is the way out of this trap which became more complicated when Yemeni Presidency committed a flagrant mistake by merging popular militias with the regular army to fight militias fighting with asymmetric doctrine , meaning emancipated from constraints , merger decision would restrict popular militias fighters , but Houthi/Saleh coalition is free from commitment starting with pro-active fighting instead of attack , and withdrawal according to long complicated sequent orders , and to be free even from Geneva Treaty of War Crimes which is likely threatens the legitimate fighters .
Well done the Arab coalition forces not to plunge into war conventional land troops in Yemen , the concept of terminating the war on ground remains unclear , the enemy is mysterious , but the coalition of illegitimacy is originally movements rather than army , it has political and ideological goals that military machine cannot destroy it , making the wise choice of the Gulf countries to plunge the elements of the asymmetric warfare of the loyal tribesmen , the southern resistance , and popular militias to implement asymmetric military confrontations after freeing them from the hasty merging process .
الخميس، 13 أغسطس 2015
We Have to Reach Sanaa Even by Symmetric Warfare
at 3:55 ص
Gulf seurity أمن الخليج العربي
- Dr.Zafer M Alajmi
- تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman