Dr. Zafer M. Alajmi
The Gulf Oration of the post- Iran nuclear deal appears us as if we do not have the means to excel or match Teheran, recognizing that a decisive shift in favor of Iran has been completely done. While more strategically exposed entities succeeded to stop driftage after the state of complete retreat and defeat and achieved balance with opponents , the GCC countries obliged to modify the inclination of the strategic balance by following one of three options :-
Not impossible to create a strategic balance of self-reliance through utilization of capabilities of state of mobilization to be imposed for a specific period, making military deterrence means alert. I can almost dogmatize that we are capable of achieving proactive deterrence which narrows the borderline between defense and offense. Whoever argues must ponder on the "Decisive Storm Operation" and its political results. It has proved – by qualitative superiority and quantitative offense – that it is not difficult to create a fighting doctrine that turns years of hesitation upside down , and to hit the principle of reliance on external support especially from Washington on vital part .
It is possible to create strategic balance by building unitary structures and regional cooperation with small entities. The influence of the super powers will decline by giving smaller entities the elements of power due to the super powers competition to attract them. Betting on paradoxes of international balances as old as ambitions of super powers in the Gulf. Ruler of Kuwait Mubarak A l-Kabir 1896-1915 used to summon Germans for consultation on the Berlin –Baghdad line which was under British protection agreement, so the British hurry in panic to achieve his demands, then he repeat the game by receiving Russian ships, creating power elements couldn’t be able to get it by himself but because of the prevailing competition conditions that does not allow to change the status quo as long as upsetting the strategic balance.
Converting the state of "strategic balance" to the "balance of terror" by sheltering under a nuclear umbrella or possessing a nuclear weapon and to enter an era of cold war eras, including escalation and calming will lead the two parties on both sides of the Gulf to a kind of " SALT Convention" and coercive reconciliation to prevent every player from acting according to his self interests.
Gulf Shores didn’t devoid of periods of strategic balance like the period of Arabic extension from Iraq to Oman until the Iraqi –Iranian war, then during the period from 1991 to 2003. In the Gulf, imbalance is the anomaly of the rule since there is reasonable security arrangements and extensive diplomatic exchanges as well as well managed relations with superpowers, or by innovative solutions, "Gaza tunnels" have successfully imposed strategic balance led to the reformulation of the fighting creed of the Zionists because of the failure of the components of their creed to provide solutions to the challenge of the tunnels. So how the six wealthiest countries in the world cannot innovate a strategic equivalent to Teheran!
الأربعاء، 29 يوليو 2015
Gulf Strategic Balance with Iran
at 5:10 ص
Gulf seurity أمن الخليج العربي
- Dr.Zafer M Alajmi
- تبين هذه المدونة كيف تمتع الخليج بأهمية كبيرة أدت إلى خلق عبء استراتيجي على أهله بصورة ظهرت فيها الجغرافيا وهي تثقل كاهل التاريخ وهي مدونة لاستشراف مستقبل الأمن في الخليج العربي The strategic importance of the Gulf region creates a strategic burden and show a good example of Geography as burden on history. This blog well examine this and forecast the Gulf's near future and events in its Iraq, Iran ,Saudi Arabia ,Kuwait, Bahrain ,Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman